The Wrist Index: Casio sells by the truckload, Rolex sells by the mortgage (October 2026)
Five watches, one per rung, priced by what sellers are asking right now. Median of the first page of Chrono24 asking prices on 10/12 — asks, not sold prices.
Rung 1: Casio F-91W · about $33
The $20-ish digital watch everyone has owned. Only 10 listings on Chrono24, median ask $33 — nobody resells these, they just buy a new one.
Rung 2: Seiko 5 Sports (SRPD55) · about $298
The first 'real' automatic for a lot of people. 31 listings, median ask $298, most between $244 and $457.
Rung 3: Tissot PRX 40 · about $329
The integrated-bracelet look without the Royal Oak price. 212 listings, median ask $329 on the first page of 60.
Rung 4: Tudor Black Bay 58 · about $3,838
The first real high-end step, made by Rolex's sister brand. 86 listings for the steel black ref. M79030N-0001, median ask $3,838, most between $3,352 and $4,500.
Rung 5: Rolex Submariner Date (126610LN) · about $15,395
864 listings and almost all of them priced between $13,900 and $16,699. That's above what community reports put as list price (around $10k), which is the whole waitlist story in one number.
The math
At median asks, one Submariner Date ≈ 466 Casio F-91Ws, or 4 Tudor Black Bay 58s. These are asking prices from one marketplace on one day, not sales — treat them as a snapshot, not a valuation.